Global Cotton Consumption to Exceed Production in 2026/27: ICAC

Global cotton consumption is expected to reach 26.10 million tonnes, exceeding production by around 353,000 tonnes as Asian textile demand remains strong.

Global cotton consumption is likely to exceed production in the 2026/27 season, according to the November edition of Cotton This Month by the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC). Several major cotton-producing countries expect lower output. However, demand should remain steady as Asian textile manufacturers continue to use cotton.

The latest estimates put global cotton production at 25.75 million tonnes, down around 4% from 26.85 million tonnes in 2025/26. Meanwhile, consumption may rise slightly to 26.10 million tonnes from 25.89 million tonnes in the previous season.

As a result, the world may consume around 353,000 tonnes more cotton than it produces. This marks a shift from the previous season, when production exceeded consumption by nearly 961,000 tonnes. Consequently, global cotton stocks may decline slightly.

Production Falls in Major Cotton-Producing Countries

Lower crop estimates in several major countries are driving the fall in global cotton output.

China may see production fall by around 4%, from 7.5 million tonnes to 7.2 million tonnes. Brazil could record a 2% drop, from 4.25 million tonnes to 4.10 million tonnes. Pakistan may face a larger decline of around 17%, while the United States could see output fall by about 4%.

India, however, may maintain production at 5.3 million tonnes. West Africa could also record a small increase, taking output to around 954,000 tonnes.

Weather remains a major concern for cotton growers. Irregular rainfall, drought, excess moisture and pest attacks could affect crops, especially in India and West Africa. These conditions may reduce yields and lead to changes in production estimates during the season.

Asian Textile Industries Support Cotton Demand

Despite lower production, global cotton demand is expected to remain strong. Textile manufacturers across Asia will continue to support consumption.

China is likely to remain the world’s largest cotton consumer, with demand of around 8.53 million tonnes in 2026/27. India ranks second, with estimated consumption of 5.9 million tonnes. This is almost the same as the previous season and remains among India’s highest recorded levels.

Other Asian markets are also showing signs of stronger demand.

Pakistan: Cotton consumption may rise by around 5% to 2.1 million tonnes. Demand has fallen for nearly five consecutive seasons. The expected increase could signal an early recovery in the country’s textile industry.

Vietnam: Consumption may reach 1.77 million tonnes and could approach 1.8 million tonnes as the season progresses. Strong yarn exports, particularly to China, and high spinning mill use are supporting demand. Vietnam also depends heavily on imported cotton. Therefore, higher consumption could increase its need for imports.

Türkiye: Cotton consumption may rise from 1.4 million tonnes to 1.5 million tonnes.

These figures highlight Asia’s growing role in the global cotton market. The region’s textile industry continues to support demand even as cotton production faces pressure.

Global Cotton Exports Expected to Decline

Global cotton exports may fall by around 1.7%, from 9.92 million tonnes in 2025/26 to 9.75 million tonnes in 2026/27.

Brazil is expected to remain the world’s largest cotton exporter, with shipments of 3.15 million tonnes. The United States may export 2.71 million tonnes, while Australia’s shipments could reach 1.02 million tonnes.

Stable consumption may not prevent a fall in exports. Differences in local supply, buying needs and trade patterns across major cotton-producing and consuming countries could affect global shipments.

ICAC’s Global Cotton Outlook for 2026/27

ICAC’s November estimates point to the following trends:

• Production: 25.75 million tonnes, down 4%.
• Consumption: 26.10 million tonnes, up 0.8%.
• Exports: 9.75 million tonnes, down 1.7%.
• Production-consumption balance: Consumption may exceed production by around 353,000 tonnes.

ICAC Forecasts Cotlook A Index Between 73 and 106 Cents

The ICAC Secretariat expects the 2026/27 Cotlook A Index to range from 73 to 106 cents per pound, with a midpoint of 87 cents per pound. Lorena Ruiz, ICAC Economist, prepared these price estimates.

Parkhi Vats, Principal Statistician and Data Architect at ICAC, wrote the November edition of Cotton This Month. ICAC will publish the next issue on 1 December 2026.

Readers can find real-time statistics on the ICAC Data Portal. They can also subscribe to Cotton This Month.