Global cotton production forecasts have been revised downward from 25.9 million tonnes to 25.5 million tonnes, led by declines in the US (-400,000 tonnes), Pakistan (-100,000 tonnes), and Sudan (-50,000 tonnes). The reductions stem from water shortages and dry conditions in the US and Pakistan, while Sudan faces pest-related crop damage.
Although overall consumption and trade remain stable, global cotton trade routes are shifting. US cotton exports to China fell from 40% in 2023/24 to just 8%, with growing volumes redirected to Vietnam, Pakistan, Turkey, and India. A recent US executive order exempting products made with US raw materials from tariffs has also elevated the role of traceability in textile sourcing. Retailers and brands now require transparent origin tracking to ensure compliance and meet consumer expectations.
Other market shifts include a 3.3-fold rise in India’s cotton lint imports for 2024/25 and an expected increase in US cotton imports by Bangladesh and India.
The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) is also updating its statistical data, with Ethiopia’s figures revised based on inputs from the Ethiopian Cotton Organization, customs services, and trade monitoring. Updated figures are reflected in ICAC’s Statistical Data Portal, offering real-time access to cotton statistics.
ICAC projects the 2025/26 season cotton price range at 60–96 cents per pound, with a midpoint of 76 cents.
The report was authored by Parkhi Vats, Economic Affairs Officer at ICAC, with price projections provided by Ms. Lorena Ruiz, ICAC Economist. The next Cotton This Month will be published on October 1, 2025.
