India’s retail market is projected to more than double from approximately ₹90–95 trillion in 2025 to ₹210–215 trillion by 2035, driven by strong consumption momentum, evolving consumer behaviour and rapid adoption of technology, according to a new joint report by Boston Consulting Group and the Retailers Association of India.
Unveiled at the Retail Leadership Summit 2026 in Mumbai, the report titled Winning Codes for Retail 2035: Capturing the ₹200 Trillion Prize examines the structural shifts reshaping Indian retail and the strategic choices retailers must make to remain competitive in the next decade.
India continues to rank among the world’s fastest-growing major economies, recording GDP growth of 8% in 2025 and remaining on track to become the third-largest economy globally by 2030. Private consumption, led by discretionary spending and services, remains a key growth engine and is expected to propel the retail sector to nearly ₹200 trillion over the next ten years.
The study highlights that consumer decision-making is becoming increasingly complex and context-driven, with growing demand for convenience, relevance and differentiation across shopping missions. Technology, particularly artificial intelligence, is emerging as a defining force across the shopper journey, influencing discovery, evaluation and purchase decisions. While nearly 42% of urban consumers in the US have already used GenAI, India’s rapidly expanding internet base and high digital adoption elasticity position AI-led commerce for accelerated growth, especially among Gen Z consumers in urban markets.
Beyond customer-facing experiences, the report emphasises AI’s ability to transform core retail functions. End-to-end, function-led AI transformation can unlock efficiency gains of 40–60%, significantly higher than the 10–15% gains typically achieved through isolated use cases. However, the report notes that nearly 70% of value creation depends on organisational capabilities, process redesign and effective change management rather than technology alone.
To succeed in this evolving landscape, retailers must sharpen their strategic focus by clearly defining target consumer cohorts, making deliberate trade-offs, and aligning decisions around a differentiated core value proposition. Embedding AI across the shopper journey, reimagining marketing and shopping experiences, and redesigning talent and operating models are identified as critical imperatives for sustained value creation.
As India enters the next phase of retail growth, the report concludes that long-term winners will be those who combine strategic clarity with disciplined execution and AI-led transformation, treating change as an ongoing capability rather than a one-time initiative.
